All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful – StatsbyLopez

As in the moments following the 2016 US election, win probabilities took center stage in public discourse after New England’s comeback victory in the Super Bowl over Atlanta. Unfortunately, n…

All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful – StatsbyLopez

Study shows Warriors have huge home court advantage, but will that disappear with Oracle when the team moves? - Golden State Of Mind

PDF) What was lost? A causal estimate of fourth down behavior in the National Football League

All models are wrong, but // The Topos Lab

What was lost? A causal estimate of fourth down behavior in the National Football League - IOS Press

all models are wrong…some are useful”

All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful – StatsbyLopez

Properties of Probability Models, Part 1

Winning Probability - an overview